Hump Day Hoops

While I wait around for the Super Bowl odds to move to LA +3 at one of my books I figured there was no better way to scratch that gambling itch than some midweek college hoops action. While I’ve had a good year thus far overall, I’ve had to weather a few storms lately. Past picks can be seen at myaction.app/matlockdc. Last night I had the Ark/UGA Over which I placed after overanalyzing the matchup all day. A quick glance at your scores app would tell you that the over never had a chance and probably wouldn’t have hit even if the game had gone into overtime which seemed possible coming down the stretch. The worst of it all though is that I’ve noticed that many of my bad calls as of late are games that I overthink and overanalyze. Therefore, I’m just gonna wing it for a couple of days and rely a little more on my gut and a little less on the stats. So without further adieu:

Missouri +15 — 1u

This Auburn team just hasn’t looked up to snuff the past 3 games without Austin Wiley. The Auburn Tigers are the better team here and playing at home but I can’t trust them to play a solid game right now until they prove that they can win games without Wiley. The Missouri Tigers, on the other hand, are a little underrated right now in my opinion and should be anxious for a chance to get back on the court again after their epic collapse against LSU on Saturday. In both that game against LSU and their previous game on the road against a Jekyll and Hyde Arkansas squad, Missouri found itself in tight ball games in the final minutes and just couldn’t seem to come up with big plays when needed to put teams away. But, they have proven that they can compete with teams in the top half of the SEC and with a number this high, Missouri plus the points is just that much more appealing.

Virginia Tech -7.5 — 1u

The Hokies have become a hot topic the past several weeks with many having the opinion that Tech held some of the best value in the futures markets. Despite the positive press, the Hokies have faltered in marquee matchups, but have gone about their business as expected outside of their of games against bluebloods. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are battling some health issues with starter Zach Johnson trying to rebound from an ankle injury and fellow starter Ebuka Izundu suffering from an illness. Izundu is currently listed as probable, but Johnson is still listed as questionable. In the spirit of trying to not stray too far into the statistical weeds, I’m simply going with a gut feeling here since the matchup doesn’t present any glaring matchup problems for either team.

Marquette +3.5 — 1u

Florida -5.5 — 1u

Bonus: “Stop the Skid Parlay” with the above 4 picks 0.5u to win 6u

College Football Week 8

It’s been a busy couple of weeks for me the last two weeks. I didn’t get a chance to post my full card or do any write-ups last week. But, that might have been for the better because I had my first losing week. Even though my picks were 12-10-1 last weekend, I got burned because the games I lost were my multi-unit plays (looking at you, Auburn). I finished -2.75 units for the week, bringing my season total to +27.84. It was a rough week, but I’ll take six weeks in the black and only one in the red every seven weeks all day.

I don’t have enough time to do any write-ups this week again, but these are my plays this week:

5u Plays:
UCF -7 @ Navy

2.5u Plays:
Memphis ML @ Houston
Colorado State -7 @ New Mexico
Oklahoma State -7 @ Texas
Troy -7 @ Georgia State
Kentucky +11.5 @ Mississippi State
North Texas +3.5 @ Florida Atlantic
Sourthern Mississippi @ Louisiana Tech -3
Michigan @ Penn State -9.5
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -21
Central Michigan -3 @ Ball State
West Virginia -9 @ Baylor
UL Lafayette @ Arkansas State Over 63
Central Florida @ Navy Over 65
Auburn @ Arkansas Over 53

1u Plays:
Temple +6.5 @ Army

Bonus Teaser:
Teased 6.5 points +525 2.5u
Troy -1
Kentucky +18
UTSA -13.5
Army Pk
SDSU -1
Utah State +10.5

College Football Week 7 Early Leans

YTD: 61-39-1 +30.59u
Last Week: 12-11-1 +2.22u

Last week was one of the worst so far this year for me and I still finished up for the week. Totals are killing me and I’ll probably avoid playing any for at least a couple weeks unless I just love a specific line. But, I’m hitting on spreads at a 69% clip (46-21-1), as opposed to just 45% on totals (15-18), to make up for the losses on totals and then some.

Here are the lines I like now early in the week. I’ll post my official plays and full card later this week.

Washington State -14 @ California
Oklahoma @ Texas +7.5
Virginia -4 @ North Carolina
Akron +14 @ Western Michigan
Auburn -6.5 @ LSU
Appalachian State -13 @ Idaho
Texas A&M +3 @ Florida
Missouri @ Georgia -31

 

College Football Week 6

Last Week — 10 – 4  +12.57 Units
YTD — 49-28 +28.37 Units

UCF -16 @ Cincinnati — 5 Units

This UCF team is for real.  Last week I just couldn’t talk myself into pulling the trigger on the Golden Knights against Memphis.  The Tigers looked solid coming off of a win versus FCS Southern Illinois and only a few weeks removed from an upset of UCLA.  On the other hand, I just felt like we had too small of a sample size to properly judge UCF.  Due to Hurricane Irma and its aftermath, UCF had played just one game in a month coming into its matchup with Memphis.  That game was against an injury-plagued Maryland team and even though UCF won that game by 28 points, I still wasn’t ready to believe in them.  Then, last week I see the UCF-Memphis score scroll across the bottom of my screen and my jaw dropped.  I knew UCF was going to score a ton of points against a Memphis defense that couldn’t keep the Arkansas School for the Deaf Leopards (low-key best mascot in the nation) out of the end-zone, but holding Memphis 13 points, 30 points below their average of 43, was something that no one could have foreseen.

deaf leopards

On the opposite sideline, Cincinnati is a team that has looked worse and worse each week this year.  The Bearcats only average 22.8 points on offense and haven’t seen an offense as potent as UCF’s this year.  Cincinnati’s defense is giving up almost 240 yards on the ground this year and with Adrian Killins Jr. and quarterback McKenzie Milton averaging over nine yards a carry for the Golden Knights, you can expect more than a couple big plays for UCF’s rushing attack.  Susceptibility for big plays by the Bearcats’ defense and UCF’s surprisingly staunch defense is the perfect mix for a blowout win for the Golden Knights in this one.

Prediction: UCF 42 – Cincinnati 20

Missouri @ Kentucky Under 61 — 5 Units

This one is simple.  Both teams average 25 points per game on offense; 50 points combined.  On defense, Kentucky is only giving up 19 points per game and while Missouri is allowing 40 per, they have had two weeks to prepare for this Wildcats team.  Barry Odom’s seat is steadily getting hotter with each passing week and I expect him to have his defense ready to go in this game.  Additionally, in the nine combined games these two teams have played this year, only seven of those games have had totals over 61 and six have been below 45.

Prediction: Missouri 16 – Kentucky 27

West Virginia @ TCU -12.5 — 2.5 Units

The Horned Frogs’ offense is one of the most balanced and efficient units in the country this year.  Combine that with one of the worst defenses in P5 with West Virginia and you can bank on TCU breaking the half-century mark in this game.  Yes, West Virginia will score their fair share of points also (this is a Big XII after all), but I just don’t see them even remotely keeping up Gary Patterson’s squad in this one.  The inaugural Big XII Championship game should feature a rematch of the upcoming 11/11 matchup of TCU @ Oklahoma.

Prediction: West Virginia 35 – TCU 52

LSU @ Florida Over 45 — 2.5 Units

Surprisingly, LSU has one of the most efficient offenses so far this year and appears to be getting Derrius Guice back this week.  While neither offense is a world beater, I believe the defenses for both teams are substantially overrated.

Coming off their upset to Troy, LSU should be fired up for this game and look for Coach O to take some chances on offense to get things going early.  Plus, with Franks starting for Florida after the injury for Del Rio, you can expect an interception or two for LSU setting them up in good field position.

Prediction: LSU 27 – Florida 21

Washington State @ Oregon Over 60 — 5 Units

I don’t understand this line at all.  It opened in the high 60’s and has slowly come down throughout the week.  I know Oregon’s starting QB is hurt, but I still expected this line to be somewhere around 70.  Washington State looks to be in a hangover spot coming off its big game versus USC last week and has given up an average of 31 points per game against P5 + Boise State.  Both teams present high powered offenses and I just don’t see any way that either team doesn’t score at least 30 points.

Prediction: Washington State 45 – Oregon 34

Full Card

Georgia -16.5 @ Vanderbilt

Texas Tech -16.5 @ Kansas

Miami (FL) -3 @ Florida State

Duke @ Virginia -2

West Virginia @ TCU -12.5

New Mexico State +11 @ Appalachian State

Kansas State @ Texas -5.5

UCF -16 @ Cincinnati

Ole Miss @ Auburn -21

Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +2

UL Monroe -6 @ Georgia State

Missouri @ Kentucky Under 61

Air Force @ Navy Over 52

Alabama @ Texas A&M Over 54

California @ Washington Over 57

New Mexico State @ Appalachian State Under 56

UCF @ Cincinnati Over 57

Memphis @ Connecticut Over 73

LSU @ Florida Over 45

Arkansas State -9 @ Georgia Southern

Washington State @ Oregon Over 60

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